Friday, April 15th, 2016

The market is up relentlessly AAPL declared dividends.

The market is up relentlessly. The SPX has been up relentlessly for 10 session so far as you can see in the chart. Please click to enlarge. Everything is up with it from the opening bell. Notice on the chart how we are in the upper range of the Regression channel on the daily charts. It plots the market valuation and now we are nearing to the upper limits on a year basis. Things are are good , in fact very good. The VIX is down to 14.56 and new low set in almost a year. There is too much complacency in the market place.

AAPL declared dividends for the first time since 1995 and the stock is now trading all time high at or near 600 levels. The chart is parabolic. Things are overbought, over done and into the nose bleed territory. Any drop from here would be severe and may place a toll on the downside.

I am always bullish in sentiment but this time the market has escaped from the leash. It just keep trucking higher defying gravity and the moves are very powerful. There is a not a crack or a drop or a pull back to be had.

Anything that gets a slight pull back gets clobbered by buyers and gets bidded up. The danger here is the downside. Can this continue going higher for days and months? I don’t know it will do , but sooner or later profit taking sets in.

Because this is new expiration cycle we wanted to align into new positions, but the timing is off. Unless we are willing to absorb pain to the downside there is no way to trade this climax. The choices are limited. Some profits may be forgone but at least there will be a time for a reasonably entry where it would make sense to go higher.

Hope I am not sounding like a bear, that is what they do all the time, they keep wishing for the downside. I am looking for an entry and just not wishing.


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